Marca applied the Elo rating system to estimate probabilities of Champions League quarterfinalists advancing to the semifinals for the 2025-26 season. Barcelona stands out with a 62.1% chance to overcome Atlético Madrid, even being favored in both home and away legs including the away fixture at Wanda Metropolitano.
The Elo system adapted for football considers current performance rather than historical trophies, adding factors like home-field advantage and draw probabilities for a realistic projection of outcomes in knockout ties.
The strength gap between Barcelona and Atlético is clearer than in other ties such as PSG vs Liverpool or Bayern vs Real Madrid. Barcelona’s favoritism in both legs highlights their strong and consistent form, which is vital for coaching decisions regarding tactics and lineup selection.
For fans and experts, this forecast offers a practical basis to set expectations and understand the competitive landscape. Barcelona is positioned not just as a participant but a leading contender for the title, raising excitement around their upcoming Champions League matches.
